U.S. Election Window

U.S. Election Window

Let’s celebrate just how panicking people seem to be about the upcoming US election.

The prospect of a Trump victory is something I have always seen as a real possibility while most others simply wrote his chances off. In fact, you may be thinking he has no chance whatsoever right now. Given his recent gaffs. Not to mention the never-ending run of embarrassments endlessly emerging from the past.

Now I am no Trump supporter. I would prefer to see Hillary Clinton win. Yet we need to be aware that Trump is not as out of the game as one might suspect. While many in the middle ground will be aghast at some of Donald Trump's antics, his voter group, while not immune, is mostly holding ground.

U.S. Election

One of the great global trends of the moment is general voter distrust of the elite. This was a factor in the Brexit referendum, and will also be a factor acting against Hillary Clinton in the election.

Hillary Clinton represents the establishment. Of that, there is no doubt. As Secretary of State, she carried very similar weight to that of President Obama at the time. A Clinton win would also confirm the two family dominance of the Bush’s and Clinton’s of the United States. This does not go unnoticed by the American voter.

Should Clinton win and be re-elected for a second term, the US will have been under the Presidential rule of just two families, for a full 32 years of a 40 year period. This doesn’t sound a lot like a democracy. More like the dominance of just two Royal families.

It is also the case that voters appear to be more mindful of Clinton’s e-mail debacle and trustworthiness generally, not to mention health issues which may or may not be real, than they do about Trump’s gruffness. The other thing we need to be mindful of is that over here in Australia we tend to only see the more sensational news snippets of the US election, and it is also caked in a kind of good versus evil context. In America, the messaging and reporting is just as severe, but also consists of a greater depth and variety of stories.

Overall though, the still in the race nature of Trump, allows some in financial markets, and therefore the financial media, and spilling over into comments about property markets, to spread the idea of some kind of cataclysm in the event of a Trump victory. There is no doubt, however, that Trump would be more pro-business, free-enterprise, and less big spending, except perhaps for defense and border protection, than Hillary Clinton.

Additionally, it is not the case that the President of the USA has free reign to do whatever they want. An obviously frustrated Obama has achieved very little of his policy agenda while being in office. Neither Clinton nor Trump will have an open mandate of the kind that would be respected and bowed to by Congress.

Therefore, the impact of either’s victory will be far more muted than the fanfare or fearfulness currently associated with either candidate. All of that said, the more likely winner at this point, will be Hillary Clinton.

There will be minimal impact on financial markets, even in the US, and none at all on property markets there, or here in Australia. This current pre US-election period than is one of hesitation and waiting by many investors of all elks, including property in Australia.

As always, we can only see this as a fantastic window of opportunity for buyers.

Clifford Bennett

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