QBE Housing Update For 2018

QBE Australia is part of the QBE Insurance Group, one of the world's top 20 general insurance and reinsurance companies. Headquartered in Sydney, they have offices across all states and territories.

Earlier this year they released an updated Housing Outlook for a detailed look at what is happening in the Australian property market!

In this, they covered:

What will Australia be like in 30 years? According to the latest projections, we’re heading towards a population of 36 million by 2050 with our two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, already on the way to super city status and eight million people.

Population growth from migration, whether international or interstate, is a major driver of our housing market. While many of the forecasts from last year’s QBE Australian Housing Outlook still stand, there have been changes to some of the underlying assumptions, including population figures, which underpin the forecasts put together by BIS Oxford Economics.

Population Growth is one of the drivers to our economies and housing markets and them detailed:

Australia’s population growth has accelerated from 1.55% in the year to September 2016, to 1.63% in the year to September 2017.

Net overseas migration was the key driver, rising from 216,800 persons to 250,100 persons in the respective periods. This is the highest annual total since the year to September 2009, pointing to some upside to the forecasts for 2017/18 made six months ago. At that time a tightening in sub-class 457 visa requirements and net departures of New Zealanders was expected to impact net overseas inflows.

The share of net national overseas migration increased in Western Australia, Tasmania, Australian Capital Territory, and South Australia in September quarter 2017. After relatively weak net overseas migration inflows into Western Australia and South Australia in 2016/17, the increased share suggests that some improvement in these states may be underway. Net interstate migration into Queensland has been stronger than anticipated, while net outflows from New South Wales are rising and are at their highest since 2011/12.

Tasmania’s net interstate migration continues to strengthen, while Victoria’s record net interstate migration inflows are starting to subside. The high net outflows from Western Australia and South Australia appear to have peaked and are now easing.

The Australian Capital Territory experienced a sizable net interstate outflow in September quarter 2017.

Makes a lot of sense, with good positives for us all to take from that!

Secondly . . . .

The RBA is failing on the most basic measures and it’s time it was held to account

said none other than leading Economist Stephen Koukoulas

As our own leader Kevin Young has been covering for a while now, have a look at what https://twitter.com/thekouk had to say :

How’s this for an economic plan?

The RBA cuts the official cash rate to 0.5 per cent and on the back of that, the unemployment rate drops to 4.75 per cent on a sustained basis, underlying inflation hits the mid-point of the 2 to 3 per cent target range and annual wages growth lifts to 3.25 per cent.

This is what a range of credible economic models suggest would happen with such a simple and transparent monetary policy move from the RBA. And what’s more, it is free to implement!

It would be, on all measures, a good economic outcome.

So why is the RBA not going to do it?

Read on to find out!

The RBA is failing on the most basic measures and it’s time it was held to account

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Have a great weekend and catch you next week!

Warm Regards,

Troy