President Elect Donald Trump - We Got It Right And It Is All Right
  • 11 November 2016

President Elect Donald Trump - We Got It Right And It Is All Right

President Elect Donald Trump has met with President Obama, and as hoped should this have been the outcome, things look good.

Well, as good as you could expect a Trump Presidency to look at this stage. There are increasing signs of a more Presidential and responsible Trump emerging. Which is just as we forecast. Very few in the media or elsewhere correctly called a Trump victory. We did. Actually we did so prior to Brexit. We got two out of three of our major forecasts right so far. If you attend any of our workshops, you may remember my triple forecasts for Turnbull to win, Trump to win, and for the UK to stay in the EU.

President Elect Donald Trump

So far, two out of three isn't bad. I say so far, because well, despite being wrong on the referendum in the UK to leave the EU, the process of Brexit itself, may still never happen. The courts have ruled, as we said all along, that the UK Parliament will have to vote on leaving the EU. At the time of the referendum between 70% and 90% of parliamentarians wanted the UK to stay in the EU. With only about a third of the adult populating voting to leave, remember it was very close, those parliamentarians who want the UK to remain in the EU have an argument for voting in that manner on any bill which comes before them. So you see, the UK may still not leave the EU.

The story of the moment of course, is that Donald Trump will be President of the United States! Whether you like his policies or not, I for one am strongly against his extreme views and policies but his win deserves respect. We must always celebrate the democratic process, regardless of whether our team wins or not. That is what democracy is, the peaceful transition of power. The outlook for the US economy, stock prices, and property markets, is extremely, even aggressively positive. Don't hesitate for a moment. Keep buying and investing. Take advantage of anyone who does hesitate. My bullishness is based on his extreme views and policies never seeing the light of day, but his aggressive positive overhaul of what makes sense in the regulatory, taxation, and infrastructure areas, coming to fruition and accelerating economic growth.

US economic growth at the moment is 2.9%, and this has been accelerating all through the year as we forecast. The global economy to is delivering as we said it would when all around people were talking of crises. China and Europe are strong. Even the UK, which was supposed to have a recession, has actually just recorded its strongest economic growth in two years. Things are good, and this is the US and the world into which Trump fortuitously becomes President. We correctly forecast he would win through an understanding of the American electorate that should not have been difficult for the media and pollsters to have figured out. The Republicans now control all three levels of government, the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency. This is good news. Not bad news.

The US economy, like Australia, has been stifled for many years by an inability of anybody to really implement progressive economic reforms. The US now has that opportunity, and I believe it will seize it. This unity of power will not lead to extreme policy. Remember half of his own party loathe his extreme views. There will be no wall. There will be no harsh removal of legal immigrants or deportation of Muslims. Of course there may well be stricter enforcement of current regulations on such issues, but there will not be a reign of extreme power by any means.

On his “good” policies, like regulatory reform, tax reform, and infrastructure acceleration, he will get agreement among legislators, and these will be implemented. So I see a path forward developing, which has everything good Trump has to offer, with none of the stupidity seeing the light of day in terms of actual legislation.

The election itself was divisive, but it can also be seen as a form of venting. One which will actually lead to a healing process as already outlined by all three leaders, Obama, Clinton, and Trump. As surprising a statement as this may first appear, I think this election will make America great again. Ramifications for trade agreements are Australia’s biggest negative out of all this, but what is more important is that we will have greater trade opportunities with a stronger USA, if on more challenging terms, than we would have with a less strong America and a TPP.

We may be a little optimistic here, but optimism has been the most realistic approach so far.

Clifford Bennett

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