On The Horizon North Korea

There is a concern this week, in a short term geopolitical sense with regard to North Korea.

While the US moving an aircraft carrier task force toward North Korea has received a lot of press, what went less noticed, is that China has already moved an additional 150,000 troops to the border with North Korea in just the past week. And that is just the ones we know about.

Temperatures are certainly rising on the Peninsula, and it would be silly to suggest that an escalation of military tension, dare I say actual conflict in the region, would not impact Australia.

So we need to understand it, in advance. Should anything happen, we will already know what to do. I teach this to my students and members in financial market trading. It is incredibly valuable to have considered a different scenario in advance. If the unexpected happens, you are able to act more deliberately and faster than other people, who are trying to figure out, and keep up with a fast-changing situation, in real time.

By the way, we have a very special Easter Special, strictly for Property Club members, and only this weekend. This is a truly amazing way for people to have a good look at stock and currency markets, at very little cost. Please take a quick look.

With regard to North Korea, this situation is well worth mentioning right now, because there may be some unwanted fireworks within just the next few days.

North Korea will be holding celebrations for one of its previous dictators, the grandfather of the current dictator. During such celebrations, it is likely North Korea will either test one of its ballistic missiles and/or conduct a nuclear weapon test. This is what the US carrier group is positioning for.

President Trump is likely, as he did in Syria, to send a powerful signal even though the situation is tense and complex. There seems to be an inclination to, if you are going to do anything, to do it properly militarily speaking. This is why there may be a simultaneous, if North Korea launches, shooting down of the missile in international waters, while through aircraft or missile attack taking out key and important nuclear research and production facilities within North Korea itself.

This would legally, be an act of war, but so was Syria, and so too were very similar raids against Iran and Iraq previously. So this is a scenario that could well unfold, as I said, within days.

We hope that it won’t, but if it should, be prepared for an all-out media barrage of how a major war is possible. Let me very clear here. This is highly unlikely. It just won’t happen. If North Korea did launch an attack against the South, or pose any other follow-up serious threat to any of the allies, then its military apparatus would be virtually totally destroyed within 12-24 hours of beginning such action. The dictator would be gone, and a new era would begin, albeit out of a lot of pain, for North Korea.

The far more likely scenario is some kind of retaliatory skirmish, but nothing significant. The number one reason being China’s troops massed on the border and battle ready.

While China may maintain reasonable rhetoric toward North Korea, and not even adjust diplomatic relations, this simple fact is enough to confirm to North Korea that they are already on thin ice, and any further movement in the direction of their recent behaviour could be the end of them.

China does not expect to use its troops, but this movement of troops tells North Korea that China could move against them in an instant. The whole world has had enough. Even their once close ally, China. China is also doing this because it expects the US to do exactly what I suggested above. China does not see Trump and US naval movements as a bluff. So it wants to be ready.

We are set for a very interesting period.

If this happens, and the media is all about major conflict? Well, yes it is, but it will be a contained and relatively quick major conflict. Markets around the world would convulse momentarily, but within a week again begin trending higher in line with the truly prosperous economic times we live in.

Therefore, we need to understand this possible scenario. So as to be quick to recognise any opportunities it may present. If a conflict of any size erupts regarding North Korea, it must immediately be seen as an opportunity to buy.

While everyone else, your competitors for quality investments, are still confused.

Wishing everyone, a very wonderful Easter with family and friends!

Clifford Bennett